Fair randomness

Evolution

This is an addendum to my last post about randomness and fairness. As I was implementing a randomizer in the spirit of the random threshold model discussed before, a nice simplification occurred to me. I knew the probabilities p in my use case would be small, between 5% and 30%, and long streaks of bad luck can feel like a bug to the user. Therefore I wanted a tight upper bound for a streak of bad luck, so I chose c = 0.5, which results in an upper bound of 2 / p, while still allowing a two-streak of good luck. The code looked simple enough:

I noticed a couple of problems though.

  1. It is somewhat likely to return true for probability p = 0% and below
  2. It is somewhat likely to return false for probability p = 100% and above
  3. The first call can never return true for small p, if entropy is initialized to 0.

It is easy enough to handle points 1. and 2. explicitly, but what about the initialization of entropy? Of course I want the probability of returning true on the first call to be equal to p. It is easy to see that entropy = 0.5f guarantees exactly that. But then one can just subtract 0.5f from both sides of the threshold test and obtain the following simplified randomizer:

Elegance

Simply elegant, isn’t it? Feel free to use the code above.